By David Zaikin, CEO of Key Elements Group
In the year since it hit these shores, Covid-19 has claimed over 126,000 UK lives. With growing calls for a full public inquiry into the handling of the crisis, it’s crunch time for the country’s leadership.
A major reason Donald Trump lost the U.S. election and Benjamin Netanyahu won the Israeli election ( still short of majority in exit polls), was how they dealt with the pandemic. Downplaying the seriousness of the global catastrophe (Trump said the country was in good shape and the virus would disappear “like a miracle”) cost the U.S. precious time, giving the crisis a head start. Similar criticisms have been levelled at Boris Johnson, who also toned down the magnitude of the risk, declaring in March last year that the UK could curb the Covid tide in twelve weeks. In fact, scientific experts were already warning of a potential outbreak the following winter. In an effort to control messaging, the government delayed vital action and issued contradictory guidance in the months that followed.
Powerful new strains of the virus came about because there were so many infected, giving it space to mutate. While it caught everyone unawares, it was avoidable. A weary, anxious population needs strong leadership, otherwise odds are that continued loss of confidence could lead to an early election or, given the level of public dissatisfaction revealed by a poll[1] on the prime minister’s handling of the pandemic and Brexit negotiations, he faces losing his majority at the next election.
The prime minister and his government have little choice but to take stock of lessons learned to avoid a further deepening of the crisis, save lives and retain their position.
[1] Source: focaldata
A blueprint for breaking the lockdown cycle
There’s an existing formula for success established by nations that were lauded for ‘winning’ the Covid battle and whose citizens are enjoying normal lives. Asia – namely China, Taiwan, Singapore, South Korea and Japan – handled the crisis better than anyone else and provided a blueprint for others on breaking free of the lockdown cycle.
Each showed robust leadership, decisive action and acted fast from the outset to close borders and deploy mass tracking and testing. These governments carried out centralised, joined up plans that localised the problem and suppressed it within months. The main takeaways are speed and a unified response. For instance, South Korea ramped up the production of tests very early in the pandemic’s trajectory, and Taiwan banned exports of masks. Neither shut down businesses, introducing strict safety measures instead, and outmanoeuvred the crisis without stopping the wheels of economy.
Nations in the region had already navigated other coronavirus outbreaks with SARS and MERS, and experience taught them the need for instant, stringent restrictions and how to organise resources. They went through traumatic lessons, having been as unprepared for SARS as the UK was for Covid-19. SARS exposed vulnerabilities in public health systems and infrastructure, and the Chinese government subsequently invested heavily into advanced disease surveillance. One thing that became clear is that, in such a crisis, protecting public health is a bigger priority than the economy. It’s an attitude that the UK would be wise to heed, as the prime minister tried to keep both public health and the economy afloat simultaneously. While the intention was good, this approach led to much indecision and a split in focus that wasn’t able to save either.
The tenets of effective crisis leadership
When it comes to UK politicians navigating an unprecedented disaster and maintaining majority support through each decision, is it a case of ‘damned if you do, damned if you don’t’? Not quite. Boris Johnson made correct decisions with many of his measures. The problem was that they all came much later than they should. It’s dangerous to adopt a ‘wait and see’ approach to how a situation unfolds in the hopes that it will provide an answer on how to proceed, fearful of making an unpopular decision until the need for action becomes inescapable.
Certainly the Asian region recognised the severity of Covid’s threat faster as it was a familiar enemy, having been through epidemics before. Still, one big lesson for the UK, as the U.S., is to recognise a crisis, however gradually it unfolds, for what it is. That means no underestimating; no sugar-coating. In a pandemic, a day wasted equates to fatalities.
Communication must be clear-cut and coordinated, it must exhibit – and instil in the public – a disciplined response to beating the virus. To do that, messaging and guidance must be transparent and data-led. At times we’ve seen how data met messaging… and messaging won. Boris Johnson seemed ahead of the facts in his response when he should have adhered strictly to science. He deviated from SAGE advice for a circuit breaker in September, and faced huge pressure to introduce the January lockdown at an earlier stage, yet the details remained vague to the last moment.
Innovation must be high on the agenda
A public health crisis necessitates a government that has a 360-degree view of the situation to mount a suitable response. Investing into innovation is a key component of that. When the pandemic hit, the UK lacked real-time information and tracking – lack of widespread testing early on hindered the government’s guidance, as data sets couldn’t paint an accurate enough picture of how numbers were progressing to inform strategic direction. The SPI-M group, which relied on up-to-the-minute NHS data to make an assessment, pointed out that some was a week old.
The NHS Covid-19 contact tracing app was launched four months late in September due to glitches with its underlying technology. There’s a huge need to accelerate the digital transformation of the NHS and help it reach its target of a ‘core level’ of digitisation by 2024, to eliminate legacy and interoperability issues that hinder quick and easy data sharing. Not only is this crucial for efficient crisis recovery but it also feeds into UK ambitions to remain a global innovation hub.
Further, the ramifications of what is essentially a ‘hard Brexit’ will only start flowing through now, so it’s vital to scale up scientific R&D and innovation through enhanced investment. It’s the way to future-proof the country and boost resilience against volatility. In the midst of uncertainty, the UK’s government can, and must, learn from its own and others’ handling of the pandemic so far. We can begin to look forward with cautious optimism, as the government has successfully accelerated the UK’s vaccination drive. There’s also a firm goal finally in place to end lockdowns and restrictions by the end of June as long as the programme continues its promising momentum. Now is not the time to relax. A disciplined, centralised approach is more important than ever at this juncture to see the vaccine plan through to its end and swiftly move on to the economic and societal recovery we so greatly need.
